Cotton falls as weather proves uncooperative

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)

General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and Sao Paulo on selling tied to a weaker Brazilian Real. London moved lower on some speculative long liquidation, but some buying tied to less offer from Vietnam on ideas that producers there are about sold out continues. Offers of Arabica from origin are still hard to find. Demand was not much stronger than the offer and the cash market remains very quiet. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for better prices of the next crop. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and cheap futures, and many are no won vacation. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. It could turn wetter and colder this weekend. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing moderate to light rains. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.744 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 116.49 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the northeast. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 811 contracts. LIFFE stocks are now 12,114 lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 116.00, and 113.00 September, and resistance is at 121.00, 125.00, and 126.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1900 September. Support is at 1860, 1820, and 1790 September, and resistance is at 1905, 1940, and 1950 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 150.00, and 151.00 September.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed mixed to lower on ideas of big supplies. Many expect production to be higher overall in Brazil due to a record Sugarcane production and better weather now, and countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Futures trends remain down overall and Price action has been weak. The Indian monsoon is good so far this season and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Northern áreas are in good shape, but southern áreas might be too hot and dry and some stress to the Sugarcane is posible in the short term. In addition, industry sources there told wire services this week that planted área is down by about 5% and that overall production would be lower even with very good weather.

Overnight News: Brazil should be mostly dry and warm this week, but could see colder and wetter weather this weekend. Iraq has tendered to buy at least 50,000 tons of White Sugar.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1580 October. Support is at 1600, 1570, and 1540 October, and resistance is at 1630, 1650, and 1665 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 448.00 October. Support is at 460.00, 457.00, and 454.00 October, and resistance is at 466.00, 470.00, and 476.00 October.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on what was called speculative long liquidation. Many are waiting for the US and European grind data to be released this week to see how strong the demand is right now. The European Grind for the second quarter was released this morning and was 310,408 tons, up 6.1% from last year. Ideas of good harvest weather and active movement of beans to ports in western Africa remain. The cash market in Africa is slow right now as buyers have already bought and are now waiting to see how the main crop turns out late this year. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Some showers are appearing again in Ivory Coast this week, and the rest of the región is in good condition. Ivory Coast will still need more rain. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.831 million bags. ICE said that 1 delivery notice was posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 378 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2260 September. Support is at 2210, 2165, and 2130 September, with resistance at 2260, 2280, and 2300 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1590 and 1640 September. Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1460 September, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1590 September.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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