Natural gas gives up gains, looks for move back higher

Daily Market Analysis for Wednesday, 07/10/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/13 @ 102.09. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/13 @ 102.82. Upside Targets = 104.35 – 104.89.
  • New highs made on the current move Tuesday @ 108.26.
    • August Brent Crude inched higher on Tuesday to trade to its highest level in more than three months while continuing to work in a very narrow trading range as the market reaches technical resistance prices below $110.
    • The market should be able to build moderately on its recent bullish momentum heading into mid-week, but with an inability to trade through $109 by Thursday, Brent could face a short-term pullback close to $105.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.72
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.55
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.49

WTI Crude Oil (August ‘13): (NYMEX:CLQ13)

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/13 @ 96.18. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/13 @ 97.05. Upside Targets =  99.22102.73
  • New highs made on the current move Tuesday @ 104.76.
    • August WTI Crude Oil rallied aggressively in after-market hours Tuesday to generate new contract and annual highs as the entire week’s trading range remains above the weekly resistance Bollinger Band.
    • Wednesday should offer some initial bullish price action heading into the storage report along with the release of the FOMC minutes that should be a pivotal intraweek data release with market-moving affects.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.47
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.23
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.13

Natural Gas (August ‘13): (NYMEX:NGQ13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/02/2013 @ 3.619. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/02/2013 @ 3.654. Upside Targets = 3.708 – 3.764.
  • Inside compression day generated on Tuesday.
    • August Natural Gas was unable to follow through on Monday’s strong bullish price action, giving back nearly all of the gains from the previous session and closing in the lower quarter of the daily trading range.
    • Look for a movement back up near $3.70 on Wednesday where the market will meet an equilibrium point and then break-out toward its next ST price movement.
  • Projected Daily Range: .116
  • Projected Weekly Range: .237
  • Projected Monthly Range: .548
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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