COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)
General Comments: Futures were lower on some long liquidation after bulls could not take out resistance at 125.00 NY September. London moved much higher on some industry buying tied to less offers from Vietnam on ideas that producers there are about sold out and some reports of insect infestations that could hurt production down the road. Offers from origin are still hard to find, especially with Brazil closed for a holiday. Demand was not much stronger than the offer and the cash market remains very quiet. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for better prices of the next crop. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and cheap futures. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions. Robusta prices are holding stronger as the Vietnamese export pace has really dropped.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.745 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.15 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the northeast. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 810 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 116.00 September, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00, and 127.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1900 September. Support is at 1820, 1790, and 1755 September, and resistance is at 1905, 1940, and 1950 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 150.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.
COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)
General Comments: Futures were mixed to higher on follow through buying from last week and also on ideas that crop conditions are getting worse in Texas. Traders were also getting prepared for the next round of USDA supply and demand estimates on Thursday that could show decreased stocks for this year and next year. However, USDA is unlikely to make any significant changes at this time. Parts of the Southeast are getting too much rain and Texas growing areas remain mostly hot and dry. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are below average now. Futures held the short term range. It is possible that futures can work lower again as demand has turned soft, but production and weather might be more important in the short term. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast will see showers and rains Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will average near normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.23 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.612 million bales, from 0.610 million yesterday. ICE said that 281 notices were posted today and that total deliveries are now 2,873 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed . Support is at 86.00, 85.20, and 84.00 October, with resistance of 87.00, 87.45, and 88.00 October.
Next page: Orange juice, Sugar and Cocoa
FCOJ (NYBOT:OJU13)
General Comments: Futures closed higher again as tropical system Chantell wa moving towards the east coast of Florida. The system is expected to stay mostly to the east of the state, but it gave traders a reason to buy, anyway. It is too late to hurt the current production as the harvest is mostly over, but a big storm now could severely impact the coming production. Chantell is not forecast to have the damaging winds and rains that would damage trees and the new production. Some also expect USDA to lower production in Florida in its next production reports on Thursday morning. Showers are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00 and 155.00 September. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 130.00 September, with resistance at 138.00, 139.00, and 150.00 September.
SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)
General Comments: Futures closed mixed as traders prepared for the UNICA reports that could show reduced Sugar production later today. Sao Paulo was on holiday yesterday to keep action from there on the quiet side. Ideas are that mills had not had time to produce more Sugar due to a delayed harvest in Brazil because of rains and also because they are concentrating on producing ethanol. Futures trends remain down overall, but prices could rally a bit first if UNICA confirms less production. There is still a lot of Sugar around, and not only from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Northern areas are in good shape, but southern areas might be too hot and dry and some stress to the Sugarcane is possible in the short term. In addition, industry sources there told wire services that planted area is down by about 5% and that overall production would be lower even with very good weather.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 October. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1665, and 1690 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 465.00 and 448.00 October. Support is at 470.00, 466.00, and 463.00 October, and resistance is at 480.00, 485.00, and 490.00 October.
COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)
General Comments: Futures closed higher in consolidation trading. Ideas of good harvest weather and active movement of beans to ports in western Africa remain, and some selling was seen in New York on US Dollar strength. Ideas that the grind data from the US and Europe next week could be disappointing provided some selling interest. The cash market in Africa is slow right now as buyers have already bought and are now waiting to see how the main crop turns out late this year. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Some showers are appearing again in Ivory Coast this week, and the rest of the región is in good condition. Ivory Coast will still need more rain. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Chart trends are mixed, but price action is weak.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.874 million bags. ICE said that 3 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 375 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2165, 2130, and 2100 September, with resistance at 2210, 2250, and 2280 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1500, 1460, and 1445 September, with resistance at 1550, 1560, and 1600 September.
