Orange juice strengthens as tropical storms forming

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)

General Comments: Futures were higher due to almost nonexistent offers from origin. Demand was not much stronger than the offer and the cash market remains very quiet. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for better prices of the next crop. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and cheap futures. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions. Robusta prices are holding stronger as the Vietnamese export pace has really dropped.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.742 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.15 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the northeast. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 810 contracts. Brazil exported 30.54 million bags of Coffee in 2012-13, up 2.5% from the previous marketing year. The ICO estimated world production at 144.6 million bags in 2012-13, up 8% from the previous marketing year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 116.00 September, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00, and 127.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1835 and 1900 September. Support is at 1790, 1755, and 1720 September, and resistance is at 1825, 1855, and 1870 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 150.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

SUGAR  (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed higher on some talk that UNICA could show reduced Sugar production in reports later this week. Ideas are that mills had not had time to produce more Sugar due to a delayed harvest in Brazil because of rains and also because they are concentrating on producing ethanol. Futures might try to work lower again this week as trends have turned down again and new contract lows were made, but at least one more day or recovery trading is possible. There is still a lot of Sugar around, and not only from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Northern areas are in good shape, but southern areas might be too hot and dry and some stress to the Sugarcane is possible in the short term. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production to continue as the weather is improved.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1580 October. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1665, and 1690 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 465.00 and 448.00 October. Support is at 470.00, 466.00, and 463.00 October, and resistance is at 480.00, 485.00, and 490.00 October.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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