Natural gas breaches technical barriers after flying to 2-week high

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday, 07/09/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/13 @ 102.09. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/13 @ 102.82. Upside Targets = 104.35 – 104.89.
  • New highs made on the current move Monday @ 108.04. STR3MO over 150% achieved.
    • August Brent Crude dropped a shade lower in thin trading on Monday as the daily resistance Bollinger Band seemed to keep a lid on any extensions of the gains from last week.
    • While Brent may face a little downward pressure following last week’s injection of bullish volatility, expect for the market to hold the mid-point of last week and then resume its rally higher above $110 before any further ST resistance comes into play.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.63
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.55
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.49

WTI Crude Oil (August ‘13): (NYMEX:CLQ13)

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/13 @ 96.18. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/27/13 @ 97.05. Upside Targets =  99.22102.73
  • New highs made on the current move Monday @ 104.12.
    • August WTI Crude Oil faltered a bit after a strong start to the new week as it closed only one tick above the daily mid-range although still outside the daily resistance Bollinger Band.
    • Tuesday should see a return of more bullish price action as the market takes aim at $105 for the first time in 14 months before then going after longer term price objectives.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.91
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.23
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.13

Natural Gas (August ‘13): (NYMEX:NGQ14)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/02/2013 @ 3.619. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/02/2013 @ 3.654. Upside Targets = 3.708 – 3.764.
  • New highs made on the current move Monday @ 3.764. Upside Targets 100% achieved.
    • August Natural Gas exploded higher on Monday to lead the energy sector as it moved through the 20-day moving average to settle at its highest mark in two weeks.
    • Monday’s bullish price action should lead to a higher high on Tuesday after an initial setback near the $3.70 threshold as the technical barriers that were breached should open the gates to higher prices and lead to $3.821
  • Projected Daily Range: .134
  • Projected Weekly Range: .237
  • Projected Monthly Range: .548
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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