Cotton works higher but demand turning soft

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)

General Comments: Futures were lower on a weaker Brazilian Real, but held relatively well because of almost nonexistent offers from origin. The cash market remains very quiet. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and cheap futures. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions. Robusta prices are holding stronger as the Vietnamese export pace has really dropped. Producers are said to have sold to exporters already, and exporters sold a bit in the last couple of weeks with losses.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 2.744 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 116.50 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the northeast. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 1 delivery notice was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 810 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 116.00 September, and resistance is at 123.00, 125.00, and 126.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1835 and 1900 September. Support is at 1790, 1755, and 1720 September, and resistance is at 1825, 1855, and 1870 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 150.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on a weaker Brazilian Real on Friday. Ideas are that mills had not had time to produce more Sugar due to a delayed harvest in Brazil because of rains and also because they are concentrating on producing ethanol. However, the data from Brazil last week showed that there was plenty of Sugar around, anyway. Futures might try to work lower again this week as trends have turned down again and new contract lows were made. There is still a lot of Sugar around, and not only from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. But, everyone is more interested in Brazil and what the Sugar market is doing there. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production to continue as the weather is good.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1580 October. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1665, and 1690 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 465.00 and 448.00 October. Support is at 470.00, 466.00, and 463.00 October, and resistance is at 480.00, 485.00, and 490.00 October.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)

General Comments: Futures closed lower on ideas of good harvest weather and active movement of beans to ports in western Africa. Internal prices are reported weak in much of Africa on ideas of weak demand. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Some showers are appearing again in Ivory Coast this week, and the rest of the region is in good condition. Ivory Coast will need more rain soon. The mid-crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.873 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 372 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2260 September. Support is at 2170, 2130, and 2100 September, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2300 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1510, 1500, and 1460 September, with resistance at 1550, 1560, and 1600 September.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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