Cocoa moves higher as demand seen weak

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher for one more day. There has been little selling pressure on the market since the dramatic move lower, but some may develop son as futures are closer to resistance areas. Better weather in Florida seems to be the big problem for the bulls at this time. Showers are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. No tropical storms are in view to cause any potential damage. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support ítem and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are posible later this week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 130.00, 125.00, and 122.50 September, with resistance at 135.00, 138.00, and 139.00 September.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower on a weaker Brazilian Real. The cash market remains very quiet. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and cheap futures. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are near unchanged today and are about 2.745 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 116.67 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 2 delivery notices was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 809 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 117.00, 116.00, and 113.00 September, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00, and 127.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1835 nd 1900 September. Support is at 1755, 1720, and 1705 September, and resistance is at 1855, 1870, and 1900 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 150.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

SUGAR  

General Comments: Futures closed lower on a weaker Brazilian Real. Ideas are that mills had not had time to amass more Sugar due to a delayed harvest in Brazil because of rains and also because they are concentrating on producing ethanol. Futures might try to work lower this week. There is still talk that a low is forming or has formed for at least the short term, but there is still a lot of Sugar around, and not only from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. But, everyone is more interested in Brazil and what the Sugar market is doing there. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production to continue as the weather is good.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1640 and 1580 October. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 October, and resistance is at 1665, 1690, and 1715 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 475.00, 465.00, and 448.00 October. Support is at 476.00, 475.00, and 470.00 October, and resistance is at 490.00, 496.00, and 499.00 October.

<< Page 2 of 2
About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome