Sugar falls on weaker Brazilian real as harvest delayed

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. There has been little selling pressure on the market in the last week since the dramatic move lower. Better weather in Florida seems to be the big problem for the bulls at this time. Futures have been working generally lower as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. No tropical storms are in view to cause any potential damage. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported. The Valencia harvest is continuing but is almost over. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are possible later this week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 130.00, 125.00, and 122.50 September, with resistance at 136.00, 137.50, and 139.00 September.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher. The cash market remains very quiet. However, roasters are showing more buying interest and it is possible to get some business done. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and might start to force the issue if prices hold and start to move higher in the short term on ideas that the market made a bottom. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil early next week, but so far the market is not concerned. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.745 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.77 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 8 delivery notices was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 807 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 117.00, 116.00, and 113.00 September, and resistance is at 125.00, 128.00, and 128.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1835 nd 1900 September. Support is at 1755, 1720, and 1705 September, and resistance is at 1855, 1870, and 1900 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 150.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

COCOA  

General Comments: Futures closed higher despite ideas of good harvest weather and active movement of beans to ports in western Africa. Internal prices are reported weak in much of Africa. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. It is hotter and drier again in Ivory Coast this week, but the rest of the region is in good condition. Ivory Coast is starting to see showers, but will need more rain soon. The mid crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.934 million bags. ICE said that 55 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 349 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2080 September, with resistance at 2190, 2200, and 2230 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1420, and 1360 September, with resistance at 1470, 1490, and 1520 September.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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