Coffee higher as roasters show buying interest

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed higher in recovery trading.  There has been little selling pressure on the market in the last week since the dramatic move lower.  Better weather in Florida seems to be the big problem for the bulls at this time.  Futures have been working generally lower as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state.  Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease.  No tropical storms are in view to cause any potential damage.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years.  Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported.  The Valencia harvest is continuing but is almost over.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are possible later this week.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 125.00, 122.50, and 121.50 September, with resistance at 130.00, 131.50, and 132.50 September.

SUGAR         

General Comments:  Futures closed lower despite the smallest delivery in seven years against July contracts in New York.  Ideas are that mills had not had time to amass more Sugar due to a delayed harvest in Brazil because of rains and also because they are concentrating on producing ethanol.  Futures might try to work lower this week.  There is still talk that a low is forming or has formed for at least the short term, but there is still a lot of Sugar around, and not only from Brazil.  The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country.  But, everyone is more interested in Brazil and what the Sugar market is doing there.  Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil.  Traders in Brazil expect big production to continue as the weather is good.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  ICE said that 2,835 lots were delivered against July Raw Sugar futures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1640 and 1580 October.  Support is at 1650, 1620, and 1600 October, and resistance is at 1690, 1715, and 1750 October.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 475.00, 465.00, and 448.00 October.  Support is at 478.00, 475.00, and 470.00 October, and resistance is at 490.00, 496.00, and 499.00 October.

COCOA        

General Comments:  Futures closed lower on ideas of good harvest weather and active movement of beans to ports in western Africa.  Internal prices are reported weak in much of Africa.  Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around.  The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains.  It is hotter and drier again in Ivory Coast this week, but the rest of the region is in good condition.  Ivory Coast is starting to see showers, but will need more rain soon.  The mid crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported.  Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.934 million bags.  ICE said that 22 delivery noticies were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 294 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2080 September, with resistance at 2190, 2200, and 2230 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1440, 1420, and 1360 September, with resistance at 1470, 1490, and 1520 September.

<< Page 2 of 2
About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome