Cocoa falls as weather proves cooperative for harvest

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in recovery trading. Prices have fallen a lot this week and some kind of correction was to be expected before the end of the week. Better weather in Florida seems to be the big problem for the bulls at this time, but maybe the better weather is now finally part of the price structure. Futures have been working generally lower as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. No tropical storms are in view to cause any potential damage. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported. The Valencia harvest is continuing but is almost over. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are possible next week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 125.00, 122.50, and 121.50 September, with resistance at 130.00, 131.50, and 132.50 September.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher on speculative short covering before the end of the month and the end of the quarter and some reports of roaster buying. The production is big, but the cash market remains very quiet. However, roasters are showing more buying interest tan they have in months. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and might start to force the issue if prices hold and start to move higher in the short term on ideas that the market made a bottom. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil early next week, but so far the market is not concerned. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.750 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 115.74 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. All areas could get showers early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 40 delivery notices was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 769 contracts. LIFFE stocks are now 12,114 lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 117.00, 116.00, and 113.00 September, and resistance is at 123.50, 125.00, and 126.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1705, and 1680 September, and resistance is at 1765, 1775, and 1800 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

SUGAR  

General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower in response to data from UNICA earlier in the week that showed ample supplies. Some liquidation trading was seen in July contracts. July goes off the Board on Friday. There is still talk that a low is forming or has formed for at least the short term, but there is still a lot of Sugar around, and not only from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. But, everyone is more interested in Brazil and what the Sugar market is doing there. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production to continue as the weather is good.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1685, 1665, and 1650 October, and resistance is at 1715, 1750, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 495.00 October. Support is at 484.00, 478.00, and 475.00 October, and resistance is at 496.00, 499.00, and 503.00 October.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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