COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower on ideas of good harvest weather and active movement of beans to ports in western Africa. Some are worried about dry weather developing in western Africa right now and there is a lot of smog in Southeast Asia, but these fears seem to be passing. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. It is hotter and drier again in Ivory Coast this week, but the rest of the region is in good condition. The mid crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.984 million bags. ICE said that 29 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 234 contracts. LIFFE stocks are 7,372 standard delivery units, 143 large delivery units, and 4 bulk delivery units.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2140, 2105, and 2080 September, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2250 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September. Support is at 1440, 1420, and 1360 September, with resistance at 1470, 1490, and 1520 SeptemberCOTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on preparations before the USDA reports that come out today. Some speculative buying appeared due to end of the month and end of the quarter position liquidation. The export sales report showed weak demand and was no reason to buy futures. Ideas of better production conditions in the US caused some selling interest. USDA showed that conditions in some areas got better while conditions in other areas got worse and this supported markets. Texas is reporting dry weather again. Dry weather is being reported in the Delta and Southeast as well. The weather should help support crop development in the Delta and Southeast, and could help in Texas as some areas of the state saw good rains last week. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast will see some light showers through this weekend and bigger rains next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend and near to below normal next week. Texas will get dry weather today and tomorrow, then a few showers early next week. Temperatures will average above to much above normal today, but near to below normal early next week. The USDA spot price is now 81.77 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.612 million bales, from 0.596 million yesterday. ICE said that 96 notices were posted today and that total deliveries are now 1,522 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 85.10, 84.00, and 82.80 October, with resistance of 86.40, 86.90, and 88.00 October.
Next page: Orange juice, Coffee and Sugar
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in recovery trading. Prices have fallen a lot this week and some kind of correction was to be expected before the end of the week. Better weather in Florida seems to be the big problem for the bulls at this time, but maybe the better weather is now finally part of the price structure. Futures have been working generally lower as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. No tropical storms are in view to cause any potential damage. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported. The Valencia harvest is continuing but is almost over. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are possible next week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 125.00, 122.50, and 121.50 September, with resistance at 130.00, 131.50, and 132.50 September.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher on speculative short covering before the end of the month and the end of the quarter and some reports of roaster buying. The production is big, but the cash market remains very quiet. However, roasters are showing more buying interest tan they have in months. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and might start to force the issue if prices hold and start to move higher in the short term on ideas that the market made a bottom. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil early next week, but so far the market is not concerned. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.750 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 115.74 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. All areas could get showers early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 40 delivery notices was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 769 contracts. LIFFE stocks are now 12,114 lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 117.00, 116.00, and 113.00 September, and resistance is at 123.50, 125.00, and 126.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1705, and 1680 September, and resistance is at 1765, 1775, and 1800 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower in response to data from UNICA earlier in the week that showed ample supplies. Some liquidation trading was seen in July contracts. July goes off the Board on Friday. There is still talk that a low is forming or has formed for at least the short term, but there is still a lot of Sugar around, and not only from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. But, everyone is more interested in Brazil and what the Sugar market is doing there. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production to continue as the weather is good.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1685, 1665, and 1650 October, and resistance is at 1715, 1750, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 495.00 October. Support is at 484.00, 478.00, and 475.00 October, and resistance is at 496.00, 499.00, and 503.00 October.
