Coffee finds buyers as sellers wait for prices to rise

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher again in recovery trading, with speculators seen on both sides of the market.  Trends in all three markets are down after the price action late last week.  However, futures also got to or close to the final down side objectives for the down trend, so it is possible that the market can continue to try to rally this week.  Arabica cash markets remain quiet right now and Robusta selling interest has become less, as well.  Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher.  Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and might start to force the issue if prices hold and start to move higher in the short term on ideas that the market made a bottom.  Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather.  There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil early next week, but so far the market is not concerned.  Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil.  Central America crops are seeing good rains now.  Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.749 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 114.46 ct/lb.  Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest.  All areas could get showers early next week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  ICE said that 26 delivery notices was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 749 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with no objectives.  Support is at 117.00, 116.00, and 113.00 September, and resistance is at 122.00, 123.50, and 125.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1720, 1705, and 1680 September, and resistance is at 1765, 1775, and 1800 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives.  Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

COTTON

General Comments:  Futures were higher as political and economic leaders in the US and China moved to calm markets that had been moving sharply lower in the last few days.  Ideas of better production conditions in the US caused some selling interest.  Ideas of better weather in US production.  USDA showed that conditions in some areas got better while conditions in other areas got worse and this supported markets.  Texas is reporting dry weather again.  Dry weather is being reported in the Delta and Southeast as well.  The weather should help support crop development in the Delta and Southeast, and could help in Texas as some areas of the state saw good rains last week.  Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see some light showers this week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will get dry weather.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA spot price is now 81.43 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.587 million bales, from 0.576 million yesterday.  ICE said that 59 notices were posted today and that total deliveries are now 1,205 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 85.10, 84.00, and 82.80 October, with resistance of 86.00, 86.90, and 88.00 October.

Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa

About the Author

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.