COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher again in recovery trading, with speculators seen on both sides of the market. Trends in all three markets are down after the price action late last week. However, futures also got to or close to the final down side objectives for the down trend, so it is possible that the market can continue to try to rally this week. Arabica cash markets remain quiet right now and Robusta selling interest has become less, as well. Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and might start to force the issue if prices hold and start to move higher in the short term on ideas that the market made a bottom. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil early next week, but so far the market is not concerned. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.749 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.46 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. All areas could get showers early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 26 delivery notices was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 749 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 117.00, 116.00, and 113.00 September, and resistance is at 122.00, 123.50, and 125.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1705, and 1680 September, and resistance is at 1765, 1775, and 1800 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher as political and economic leaders in the US and China moved to calm markets that had been moving sharply lower in the last few days. Ideas of better production conditions in the US caused some selling interest. Ideas of better weather in US production. USDA showed that conditions in some areas got better while conditions in other areas got worse and this supported markets. Texas is reporting dry weather again. Dry weather is being reported in the Delta and Southeast as well. The weather should help support crop development in the Delta and Southeast, and could help in Texas as some areas of the state saw good rains last week. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see some light showers this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA spot price is now 81.43 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.587 million bales, from 0.576 million yesterday. ICE said that 59 notices were posted today and that total deliveries are now 1,205 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 85.10, 84.00, and 82.80 October, with resistance of 86.00, 86.90, and 88.00 October.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower and broke some important support areas on the charts as weather remains mostly good in Florida. Better weather in Florida seems to be the big problem for the bulls at this time. Futures have been working generally lower as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. No tropical storms are in view to cause any potential damage. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported somewhere in the state every day now. The Valencia harvest is continuing but is almost over. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are possible next week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Nielsen said that domestic retail sales of orange juice were 39.89 million gallons, down 4.2% from the previous four week period.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 130.00 and 119.00 July. Support is at 132.00, 130.00, and 125.00 July, with resistance at 136.00, 137.50, and 139.00 July.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through buying and as July goes off the Board on Friday. Some in the Sugar market are talking more and more about a low forming in this area. Ideas are that Sugar prices are cheap enough that many refiners are now making ethanol and not Sugar. The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. But, everyone is more interested in Brazil and what the Sugar market is doing there. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East. Sugar refiners in Brazil are concentrating on producing Ethanol and not Sugar, so down side overall might not be that extreme and any moves lower this week might be chances to buy for at least a short term move.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1770 and 1820 October. Support is at 1715, 1700, and 1665 October, and resistance is at 1760, 1770, and 1790 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 495.00 October. Support is at 487.00, 484.00, and 478.00 October, and resistance is at 499.00, 503.00, and 508.00 October.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher. There was not a lot of news for the market, but some are worried about dry weather developing in western Africa right now and there is a lot of smog in Southeast Asia. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. It is hotter and drier again in Ivory Coast this week, but the rest of the region is in good condition. The mid-crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.021 million bags. ICE said that 20 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 148 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2140, 2105, and 2080 September, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2250 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September. Support is at 1420, 1360, and 1320 September, with resistance at 1450, 1470, and 1490 September.
