Coffee finds buyers as sellers wait for prices to rise

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed lower and broke some important support areas on the charts as weather remains mostly good in Florida.  Better weather in Florida seems to be the big problem for the bulls at this time.  Futures have been working generally lower as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state.  Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease.  No tropical storms are in view to cause any potential damage.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years.  Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported somewhere in the state every day now.  The Valencia harvest is continuing but is almost over.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are possible next week.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Nielsen said that domestic retail sales of orange juice were 39.89 million gallons, down 4.2% from the previous four week period.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 130.00 and 119.00 July.  Support is at 132.00, 130.00, and 125.00 July, with resistance at 136.00, 137.50, and 139.00 July.

SUGAR         

General Comments:  Futures closed higher on follow through buying and as July goes off the Board on Friday.  Some in the Sugar market are talking more and more about a low forming in this area.  Ideas are that Sugar prices are cheap enough that many refiners are now making ethanol and not Sugar.  The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country.  But, everyone is more interested in Brazil and what the Sugar market is doing there.  Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil.  Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good.  Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East.  Sugar refiners in Brazil are concentrating on producing Ethanol and not Sugar, so down side overall might not be that extreme and any moves lower this week might be chances to buy for at least a short term move.  

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1770 and 1820 October.  Support is at 1715, 1700, and 1665 October, and resistance is at 1760, 1770, and 1790 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 495.00 October.  Support is at 487.00, 484.00, and 478.00 October, and resistance is at 499.00, 503.00, and 508.00 October.

COCOA        

General Comments:  Futures closed higher.  There was not a lot of news for the market, but some are worried about dry weather developing in western Africa right now and there is a lot of smog in Southeast Asia.  Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around.  The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains.  It is hotter and drier again in Ivory Coast this week, but the rest of the region is in good condition.  The mid-crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported.  Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.021 million bags.  ICE said that 20 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 148 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2140, 2105, and 2080 September, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2250 September.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September.  Support is at 1420, 1360, and 1320 September, with resistance at 1450, 1470, and 1490 September.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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