KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (August ‘13):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/13 @ 105.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/13 @ 102.15. Downside Targets = 101.07 – 100.35.
- New lows made on the current move Friday @ 100.04
- August Brent Crude initially broke through the previous weeks’ high early in last trading week to impact the 20-week moving average before falling over $6 in the last two sessions to once again trade near the $100 level.
- Given that Brent has had a 62+% correlation with the S&P this year on losing day’s in the stock market resulting in down days in the oil market, expect for an volatility pop early in the week to be short-lived as the risk asset classes are likely to see additional selling to make one last push towards establishing an annual low.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.69
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.97
WTI Crude Oil (August ‘13):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/13 @ 97.64. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/13 @ 96.63. Downside Targets = 93.43 – 91.89.
- August WTI Crude Oil was unable to break through the $100 mark this past week as a deleveraging of the risk markets saw the oil complex suffer its largest one-week drop in over 2 ½ months.
- As volatility picks up, look for a short-covering move back near last week’s mid-point ($96.17) before fresh selling returns to once again make a push into the $90-$92 support zone.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.58
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.14
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.15
Natural Gas (August ‘13):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/21/13 @ 3.854. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/13 @ 3.793. Downside Targets = 3.638 – 3.584.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.854. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.793.
- August Natural Gas broke lower in the second half of the trading week during this last week’s action as a slightly better than expected injection into storage pressured the market to settle below $3.80 for the second consecutive trading week and beat year ago injections by 50%.
- Natural gas has recently shown a little resilience between $3.80 and $3.75 so traders will need to see early week selling or else risk the possibility of a double bottom forming.
- Projected Daily Range: .114
- Projected Weekly Range: .272
- Projected Monthly Range: .614
