Cotton drops as China’s economy falters

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher in recovery trading after the big moves lower on Thursday caused by the weaker Real and some weak economic data from China. Trends in all three markets are down after the price action late last week. However, futures also got to or close to the final down side objectives for the down trend, so it is possible that the market can rally going into the week. Arabica cash markets remain quiet right now and Robusta selling interest has become less, as well. Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and might start to force the issue if prices hold and start to move higher in the short term. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil early next week, but so far the market is not concerned. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.749 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.34 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. All areas could gt showers early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 1 delivery notice was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 667 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 September, and resistance is at 122.00, 123.50, and 125.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1670 and 1580 September. Support is at 1720, 1705, and 1680 September, and resistance is at 1765, 1775, and 1800 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. Trends flipped to down with the price action Thursday, and some follow through selling is possible early this week. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East. Sugar refiners in Brazil are concentrating on producing Ethanol and not Sugar, so down side overall might not be that extreme and any moves lower this week might be chances to buy for at least a short term move.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1640 and 1580 October. Support is at 1665, 1650, and 1620 October, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1730 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 458.00 and 441.00 October. Support is at 469.00, 466.00, and 463.00 October, and resistance is at 480.00, 484.00, and 487.00 October.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed lower as the US Dollar rallied. There was not a lot of news for the market, and price action reflected this. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. It is hotter and drier again in Ivory Coast this week, but the rest of the region is in good condition. The mid-crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.020 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 120 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2140, 2105, and 2080 September, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2250 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September. Support is at 1425, 1360, and 1320 September, with resistance at 1450, 1470, and 1490 September.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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