COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower again on what appeared to be long liquidation from speculators and perhaps some farm selling. The rally in the U.S. dollar and disappointing economic news from China late last week caused the selling interest to develop once again. Ideas of better weather in U.S. production areas were once again negative for prices. Some storms are moving through western Texas and conditions there are improving. Good weather is being reported in the Delta and Southeast as well. The weather has improved, and looks to improve conditions generally through the rest of the week. Scattered showers are forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and wetter and warm weather is expected in Texas. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see some light showers this week. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 81.3409 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.574 million bales, from 0.562 million yesterday. ICE said that 116 notices were posted today and that total deliveries are now 116 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 85.10, 84.75, and 84.55 October, with resistance of 87.10, 88.20, and 89.60 October.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower. Futures have been working generally lower as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. No tropical storms are in view to cause any potential damage. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported somewhere in the state every day now. The Valencia harvest is continuing but is almost over. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but showers are possible next week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 141.00, 133.00, and 130.00 July. Support is at 139.00, 137.50, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 145.00, 146.50, and 150.00 July.
Next page: Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in recovery trading after the big moves lower on Thursday caused by the weaker Real and some weak economic data from China. Trends in all three markets are down after the price action late last week. However, futures also got to or close to the final down side objectives for the down trend, so it is possible that the market can rally going into the week. Arabica cash markets remain quiet right now and Robusta selling interest has become less, as well. Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and might start to force the issue if prices hold and start to move higher in the short term. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil early next week, but so far the market is not concerned. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.749 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.34 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. All areas could gt showers early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 1 delivery notice was posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 667 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 September, and resistance is at 122.00, 123.50, and 125.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1670 and 1580 September. Support is at 1720, 1705, and 1680 September, and resistance is at 1765, 1775, and 1800 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 151.00, and 155.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. Trends flipped to down with the price action Thursday, and some follow through selling is possible early this week. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East. Sugar refiners in Brazil are concentrating on producing Ethanol and not Sugar, so down side overall might not be that extreme and any moves lower this week might be chances to buy for at least a short term move.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1640 and 1580 October. Support is at 1665, 1650, and 1620 October, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1730 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 458.00 and 441.00 October. Support is at 469.00, 466.00, and 463.00 October, and resistance is at 480.00, 484.00, and 487.00 October.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower as the US Dollar rallied. There was not a lot of news for the market, and price action reflected this. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. It is hotter and drier again in Ivory Coast this week, but the rest of the region is in good condition. The mid-crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.020 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 120 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2140, 2105, and 2080 September, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2250 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September. Support is at 1425, 1360, and 1320 September, with resistance at 1450, 1470, and 1490 September.
