S&P E-mini volume sinks to January 2013 levels on big loss

MAAD & CPFL Review

 

Market Snapshot for session ending 6-20-13
 

Last

Day Change

%Change

S&P 500 Index

1588.19

-40.74

-2.50%

Dow Jones Industrials

14758.32

-353.87

-2.34%

NASDAQ Composite

3364.63

-78.56

-2.28%

Value Line Arithmetic Index

3619.89

-96.23

-2.56%

Minor Cycle* (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Negative

Intermediate Cycle* (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Neutral / Negative

Major Cycle* (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

* Cycle status is based on S&P 500.

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Sharp losses in all of major indexes Thursday pushed all below June 6 Minor Cycle support lows (1598.23—S&P 500) while re-asserting short-term downtrend.
  • Market volume rose by just under 31%.
  • To suggest reversal of short-term negative to positive, S&P 500 must rally above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1639.45 through Friday). Intermediate Cycle remains positive until 1575.70.
  • Our short-term volatility indicator based on VIX data remains negative.
  • Daily MAAD was negative by 1 to 19 Thursday. Last markable high in indicator was made May 21. Daily MAAD Ratio was last toward “Oversold” territory at .82.
  • Daily CPFL was negative by 3.5 to 1 Thursday and remains below new short to intermediate-term high reached June 11. Daily CPFL Ratio was last into the upper regions of “Oversold” territory at .86.
  • Via Thursday’s sharp losses, Cumulative Volume in S&P 500 Emini declined to CV level not seen since early January when contract was trading near 1425.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun last November 16 is probably over. Selling below June 6 lows (1598.23—S&P) all but rang death knell on intermediate uptrend.
  • While there could be some short-covering rallies in sessions just ahead, we do not think May 22 Intraday, Minor, and Intermediate Cycle highs (1687.18—S&P 500) will be surpassed anytime soon.
  • Given market weakness, odds are increasing Key Reversal Day made May 22 in all of major indexes will prove to be accurate market reversal point on at least larger Intermediate Cycle. Depending on how intermediate trend plays out, staying power of Major Cycle advance begun in March 2009 could then become an issue.
  • There is still room for some margin of error in this market, but considering extent of recent losses and damage suffered, we do not think May highs will be exceeded anytime soon.

Index Price Channel Stops (10-Bar MAs of Highs/Lows ) Weekly Monthly
 

6/17

6/18

6/19

6/20

6/21

6/21

6/30

S&P 500 Index

BUY1642.95

BUY1641.46

SELL1620.07

SELL1618.28

SELL1620.50

SELL1575.70

SELL1374.74

Dow Jones Industrials

BUY15254.55

BUY15244.97

SELL15048.49

SELL15026.69

SELL15027.45

SELL14671.22

SELL12785.71

NASDAQ Composite

BUY3469.51

BUY3467.54

SELL3420.92

SELL3413.72

SELL3413.85

SELL3278.07

SELL2932.03

Value Line Index

BUY3734.33

BUY3731.08

SELL3682.79

SELL3677.95

SELL3681.07

SELL3520.89

SELL2949.32

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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