Coffee stagnates as market participants lose interest

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed a little lower again on forecasts for more showers this week. Futures have been working generally lower since the USDA crop reports last week as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported somewhere in the state every day now. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 141.00, 133.00, and 130.00 July. Support is at 144.00, 139.00, and 137.50 July, with resistance at 150.00, 154.00, and 156.00 July.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed lower as the speculative buying dried up and some new selling from producers and speculators emerged. Some pointed to weakness in the Brazilian Real as a reason to sell Sugar. The market might have completed its recovery trade from recent lows and could try to develop a trading range for a while. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. However, some say that the market has traded on big supplies for a long time now and deserves to rally for at least the short term. They might try to buy into price weakness today. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1730 October. Support is at 1680, 1665, and 1650 October, and resistance is at 1730, 1760, and 1790 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 495.00 October. Support is at 472.00, 469.00, and 466.00 October, and resistance is at 480.00, 487.00, and 491.00 October.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be a lot of follow through speculative selling. July was much higher as the market looks for more delivery notices. There was not a lot of news for the market, and price action reflected this. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. The mid crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.055 million bags. ICE said that 58 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 120 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2200, 2165, and 2140 September, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2300 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September. Support is at 1430, 1360, and 1320 September, with resistance at 1470, 1490, and 1520 September.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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