Orange juice seen falling as rains improve growing conditions

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were mostly a little lower in quiet trading. Interest has left the market in many ways, as many feel prices are too low to sell short again, but there are few who see any reasons to buy for the longer term.  Arabica cash markets remain quiet right now and roasters in the US are showing little interest in buying.  There is talk of increasing offers of Robusta from producers as they apparently did not sell when prices were much higher.  Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher.  Buyers are interested on cheap differentials.  Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather.  There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil at the end of this week.  Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil.  Central America crops are seeing good rains now.  Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are little changed today and are about 2.746 million bags.  GCA stocks are 5.147 million bags, from 4.867 million last month.  The ICO composite price is now 116.04 ct/lb.  Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America.  Temperatures should average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 116.00 July.  Support is at 121.00, 119.00, and 116.00 July, and resistance is at 125.00, 127.00, and 130.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1765 July.  Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 July, and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1810 July.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 147.00, 144.00, and 140.00 September, and resistance is at 151.00, 155.00, and 159.00 September.

SUGAR         

General Comments:  Futures closed higher on what appeared to be follow through short covering from speculators.  The market has made a bottom and is now reaching for its targets in the recovery.  Everyone talks about the big supplies, but reports of renewed demand interest helped rally the market again yesterday.  July was higher as short speculators start to pull out of positions before the contract stops trading at the end of the month.  There was no other real news for the market.  Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil.  Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good.  However, some say that the market has traded on big supplies for a long time now and deserves to rally for at least the short term.  Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East.   

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south ad southwest.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1730 October.  Support is at 1680, 1665, and 1650 October, and resistance is at 1730, 1760, and 1790 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 495.00 October.  Support is at 477.00, 472.00, and 469.00 October, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 494.00 October.

COCOA        

General Comments:  Futures closed lower on what appeared to be a lot of follow through speculative selling.  There was not a lot of news for the market, and price action reflected this.  Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around.  The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains.  The mid crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported.  Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.067 million bags.  ICE said that 4 delivery noticies were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 68 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with no objectives.  Support is at 2200, 2165, and 2140 September, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2300 September.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September.  Support is at 1430, 1360, and 1320 September, with resistance at 1520, 1570, and 1600 September.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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