Market gains, settles between May 22 high, June 6 low

MAAD & CPFL Review


Market Snapshot for session ending 6-17-13


Day Change


S&P 500 Index




Dow Jones Industrials




NASDAQ Composite




Value Line Arithmetic Index




Minor Cycle* (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Neutral / Negative

Intermediate Cycle* (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Neutral / Positive

Major Cycle* (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

* Cycle status is based on S&P 500.

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Major indexes rallied Monday to take away some of negativity on Minor Cycle while giving current near-term trend a more “Neutral” feel.
  • Trading Volume rose 7% compared to last Friday’s levels.
  • But to confirm reversal of short-term trend to positive, S&P 500 must rally above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1641.46 through Tuesday). Intermediate Cycle remains positive until 1575.70.
  • Our short-term volatility indicator based on VIX data remains negative.
  • Daily MAAD was positive Monday by 18 to 2 and indicator remains below short-term high reached May 21. Daily MAAD Ratio was last just below “Neutral” at .87.
  • Daily CPFL was negative by 1.36 to 1 Monday and indicator remains below new short to intermediate-term high reached June 11. Daily CPFL Ratio was just above “Neutral” at 1.09.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Reluctance of S&P 500 to sink back below June 6 short-term low at 1598.23 might be interpreted as bullish sign, but entering into that supposition is fact that nothing but strength back above May 22 short to intermediate-term high (1687.18) will re-assert intermediate uptrend begun last November 16 or long-term advance begun in March 2009.
  • Moreover, if May 22 proves to be top of rally since November, “Neutral” readings from here on could prove to be enough of a statistical setup to preface another move to the downside on Minor Cycle.
  • In a nutshell, broad market is at one of those key junctures between near-term support and resistance that will determine larger cycle staying power. In other words, upside and downside boundaries of this market are defined and it will only be a matter of time before either bulls or bears take prize.

Index Price Channel Stops (10-Bar MAs of Highs/Lows ) Weekly Monthly








S&P 500 Index

BUY 1642.95

BUY 1641.46

BUY 1640.14

BUY 1639.45

BUY 1639.45

SELL 1575.70

SELL 1374.74

Dow Jones Industrials

BUY 15254.55

BUY 15244.97

BUY 15238.53

BUY 15227.89

BUY 15221.49

SELL 14671.22

SELL 12785.71

NASDAQ Composite

BUY 3469.51

BUY 3467.54

BUY 3465.10

BUY 3461.55

BUY 3548.48

SELL 3278.07

SELL 2932.03

Value Line Index

BUY 3734.33

BUY 3731.08

BUY 3728.61

BUY 3729.01

BUY 3730.20

SELL 3520.89

SELL 2949.32

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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