Stock market defines buy/sell points on intermediate trend

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

With index pricing stuck between resistance highs (1687.18—S&P 500) created back on May 22 and the June 6 intraday lows (1598.23—S&P 500), the battle lines are clear. If the June 6 lows prove to be the bottom of a near-term downtrend with coincident “Oversold” conditions preliminary to a new round of buying, nothing but new highs back above those May 22 highs would re-assert the Intermediate Cycle advance began after the November lows. And the long-term uptrend begun in March 2009.

On the other hand, new short-term lows below the June 6 bottom would not bode well for pricing on the Intermediate Cycle and would almost certainly confirm a new Intermediate Cycle negative with the suggestion there could be a threat to the larger Major Cycle uptrend.

Of the two scenarios we are currently leaning in favor of a more bearish resolution to the current short to intermediate-term dilemma.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

5-3-13

17

3

5-3-13

41532

21636

5-6-13

13

6

5-6-13

NA

NA

5-7-13

13

6

5-7-13

21572

8712

5-8-13

17

3

5-8-13

36948

11426

5-9-13

9

11

5-9-13

20593

18234

5-10-13

16

3

5-10-13

21866

10346

5-13-13

14

6

5-13-13

37662

5488

5-14-13

13

6

5-14-13

66086

20835

5-15-13

16

4

5-15-13

45496

12804

5-16-13

7

13

5-16-13

34276

16640

5-17-13

18

2

5-17-13

52163

18463

5-20-13

12

7

5-20-13

55188

9911

5-21-13

14

6

5-21-13

21442

14454

5-22-13

6

14

5-22-13

34137

44202

5-23-13

7

13

5-23-13

54072

26123

5-24-13

7

13

5-24-13

23756

26622

5-27-13

Hol

---

5-27-13

Hol

---

5-28-13

14

6

5-28-13

18897

26818

5-29-13

9

10

5-29-13

31332

19318

5-30-13

16

3

5-30-13

21198

16440

5-31-13

1

19

5-31-13

14444

73380

6-3-13

12

8

6-3-13

32908

28279

6-4-13

8

12

6-4-13

19870

17545

6-5-13

1

19

6-5-13

31541

52720

6-6-13

16

4

6-6-13

49254

41512

6-7-13

14

6

6-7-13

54078

24555

6-10-13

11

8

6-10-13

22738

15800

6-11-13

2

18

6-11-13

31570

15611

6-12-13

3

16

6-12-13

16856

54812

6-13-13

15

5

6-13-13

54829

27474

6-14-13

4

16

6-14-13

21615

25234

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

1-4-13

19

1

1-4-13

142605

25100

1-11-13

13

5

1-11-13

90566

22250

1-18-13

11

8

1-18-13

75858

37446

1-25-13

12

7

1-25-13

67580

24811

2-1-13

14

6

2-1-13

47418

27737

2-8-13

10

9

2-8-13

79635

31633

2-15-13

11

9

2-15-13

81129

33755

2-22-13

4

16

2-22-13

92498

42338

3-1-13

7

12

3-1-13

84043

45510

3-8-13

19

1

3-8-13

99617

35462

3-15-13

13

7

3-15-13

146291

30502

3-22-13

6

14

3-22-13

60614

38326

3-29-13

13

7

3-29-13

46289

19185

4-5-13

7

13

4-5-13

36138

75905

4-12-13

17

3

4-12-13

102421

24788

4-19-13

5

15

4-19-13

77064

98927

4-26-13

16

4

4-26-13

69002

47733

5-3-13

18

2

5-3-13

106307

39059

5-10-13

16

4

5-10-13

101919

27785

5-17-13

16

4

5-17-13

264768

40669

5-24-13

7

13

5-24-13

133188

105220

5-31-13

10

10

5-31-13

52189

172660

6-7-13

14

6

6-7-13

208337

89250

6-14-13

6

14

6-14-13

84672

121886

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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