Gold bears return as ETP rout extends to 17th week

Grain Costs

Eighteen of 30 surveyed anticipate lower corn prices and nine said the grain will gain, while 14 of 29 said soybeans will rise and 13 expect lower prices. Eighteen traders predicted declines in wheat and seven were bullish. Corn fell 24% to $5.305 a bushel this year in Chicago. The December contract, which reflects supply after the U.S. harvest, is down 12% this year. Soybeans lost 8.3% to $12.92 a bushel, as wheat declined 13% to $6.7925 a bushel.

Seven traders and analysts surveyed expect copper to fall next week, six were bullish and five were neutral. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, slipped 11% to $7,098.25 a ton this year.

‘Death Bells’

Citigroup Inc. said in May that this year will probably signal “death bells” for the commodities super cycle, or longer-than-average period of rising prices. Societe Generale SA wrote in a June 12 report that it’s too early to call a near- term end to the super cycle because of expanding populations with more disposable income and greater urbanization.

The Washington-based World Bank cut China’s growth outlook to 7.7%, from 8.4% previously. The nation is the biggest user of everything from copper to cotton to coal. Metals and grains are among the worst-performing commodities this year.

“Our call has been for a bottoming in commodities prices in the second-quarter,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, the Oslo-based chief commodity analyst at SEB AB. “The reduced growth outlook by the World Bank is shaking that confidence a little.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 18 Hold: 4
Copper survey results: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 7 Hold: 5
Corn survey results: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 18 Hold: 3
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 13 Hold: 2
Wheat survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 18 Hold: 2
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 3 Bearish: 6 Hold: 2
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 4 Bearish: 5 Hold: 2
White sugar premium results: Widen: 2 Narrow: 1 Neutral: 8

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