Natural gas makes gains, but large inventory report expected

Daily Market Analysis for Thursday, 06/13/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/13 @ 102.64. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/06/13 @ 103.33. Upside Targets = 109.11 – 113.72.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 104.19.
    • August Brent Crude continued its choppy price action on Wednesday nearly eliminating its losses from Tuesday despite weakness in the stock market.
    • Currently Brent is being dominated by day-trading activity as it continues to hover around the mid-range for the last six weeks and only a trade above the May highs or June lows will give any significant direction to this market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.63
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.89
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.97

WTI Crude Oil (July ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/05/13 @ 94.42. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/06/13 @ 94.76. Upside Targets = 97.55 – 99.12.
    • July WTI Crude Oil reversed back to the upside on Wednesday to making new highs for the month by a few ticks before backing off into the settle as some shorter term stochastics begin to move back into peaking levels.
    • Given the whipsaw trading that has plagued the oil markets over the past few trading sessions, expect for early declines in WTI heading into Thursday’s jobless claims report before the data release injects some fresh volatility into the market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.94
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.88
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.15

Natural Gas (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/13 @ 4.117. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/30/13 @ 4.023. Downside Targets = 3.957 – 3.879.
  • New lows made on the current move Wednesday @ 3.710.
    • July Natural Gas rallied off its overnight lows on Wednesday to close above the previous day’s mid-point and log its first substantial gain in almost three weeks.
    • Look for a slight continuation into the early trading session on Thursday ahead of the report, where should storage expectations be met, the market should be sold off hard once again and take a serious look at sub $3.70 prices.
  • Projected Daily Range: .122
  • Projected Weekly Range: .275
  • Projected Monthly Range: .614
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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