Cotton moves higher in reaction to USDA estimates


General Comments: Futures were higher in reaction to the USDA supply and demand estimates that showed more demand and less ending stocks. It also cut production estimates due to poor weather in the South. USDA anticipates more demand from China. World estimates continued to show big supplies,, but a big part of that is located in China and will not be generally available.. Traders also talk of reduced production potential due to the poor weather seen until recently in the Delta and Southeast and still reported in parts of Texas. Trends are up. Ideas of good weather for US crops are still around. Traders are worried about Chinese demand, but there is talk that overall demand increased in the last week. The weather has improved, but it is still too dry in Texas and drier weather is needed for the Delta and Southeast. Dry conditions are forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and dry and warm weather is expected in Texas. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA spot price is now 85.86 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.536 million bales, from 0.533 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 101,100 bales this year and 97,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 1,800 bales this year and 1,700 bales next year.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9140 and 9550 July. Support is at 88.40, 87.60, and 81.70 July, with resistance of 90.50, 91.15, and 91.60 July.


General Comments: Futures closed lower even though USDA showed another reduction in Oranges production in Florida. It seemed to be a buy the rumor and sell the fact situation as decreased production had been expected.. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 148.00, 145.00, and 144.00 July, with resistance at 154.00, 156.00, and 159.00 July.

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