FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed higher in very light volume trading. Futures were still not able to take out recent highs as traders prepare for the reports on Wednesday. USDA could show another drop in production by 1.0 million boxes. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 160.00 and 177.00 July. Support is at 148.00, 145.00, and 144.00 July, with resistance at 154.00, 156.00, and 159.00 July.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on ideas that short term supplies available to the market here are very hard to find. Traders are talking about a squeeze right now. The crop progress and condition report was disappointing for the bears as progress remains behind and conditions were lower than expected. Trends are turning up as traders look ahead to the USDA monthly updates that will be released Wednesday afternoon. Ideas of good weather for US crops are still around. Traders are worried about Chinese demand, but there is talk that overall demand increased in the last week. The weather has improved, but it is still too dry in Texas and drier weather is needed for the Delta and Southeast. Scattered showers are forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and dry and warm weather is expected in Texas this week. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.64 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.528 million bales, from 0.530 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.75, 83.60, and 83.25 July, with resistance of 86.90, 87.10, and 88.40 July.
Next page: Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York on speculative buying tied to short covering, but weakness continues in London. Arabica cash markets seem quiet right now and roasters in the US are showing little interest in buying. However, there is very little on offer and that fact has helped hold prices at current levels. There is talk of increasing offers of Robusta from producers as they apparently did not sell when prices were much higher. However, the Arabica market does not show any real changes. Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and waiting for differentials or futures to get stronger, and mostly are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are waiting for prices to drop even more, but are interested on cheap differentials. Brazil weather is forecast to show some showers for this week, but no cold weather. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.746 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 121.68 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 119.00 July, and resistance is at 130.00, 133.00, and 135.00 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1830, 1800, and 1770 July, and resistance is at 1870, 1895, and 1920 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 150.00 September, and resistance is at 161.50, 166.00, and 170.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed mixed in consolidation trading. There was no real news for the market, and the price action reflected that reality. The price action overall remains weak and implies that further losses are coming down the road due to coming Brazil supplies. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East, but starting to fade now as needs are getting covered.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 216 delivery notices were posted for Sugar 16.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1620, 1610, and 1570 July. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 July, and resistance is at 1675, 1700, and 1720 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 474.00, 470.00, and 467.00 August, and resistance is at 486.00, 487.00, and 491.00 August.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed with small changes in consolidation trading. There was not a lot of news for the market, and price action reflected this. It looks like the buying was based on the charts as New York futures could not move to new lows and in fact have held at an important area on the charts. But, ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. The mid-crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.120 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2480 and 2520 July. Support is at 2325, 2280, and 2250 July, with resistance at 2370, 2400, and 2420 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1580 and 1600 July. Support is at 1540, 1520, and 1505 July, with resistance at 1575, 1580, and 1600 July.
