September 2013 T-Bonds opened on May 1 at 147-18 and closed the month at 140-01 hitting a low of 138-30. The first trading week of June we saw the market open at 140-05, high 142-15, low 139-13 and close at 139-25.
Do I really care if the bond rally is over? Not really, all I care about is for large moves up and down like we have seen in April 2012 starting a nice long-term ride up and May 2013 nice ride down. For this week I would like to see continued weakness and the price action to close below 139-00 and possibly test 138-00. Hoping this is not too much to ask for.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
On the weekly chart you can see the posture of “big money” in the COT-TFF report. You can see how Dealer Intermediary continued dropping net shorts (bear), Leveraged Funds also dropped net shorts (bull), and Asset Managers increased net longs (bear). Overall this past week resulted in a bearish COT report, a change may be coming if Leveraged Funds become net long and increase this week to week.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
On the daily chart below you can see ADX dropped a bit this week to 36.4 and DI Differential increased with DI- over DI+, reflecting a strong trend down. MACD has dropped divergence from below the signal line and last week Stochastics attempted a correction out of oversold territory but dropped back into oversold territory on Friday’s price action.
Click to enlarge.
Have a prosperous trading week.
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