Cocoa moves higher amid disappointing production reports

COCOA   

General Comments: Futures closed higher again, and pushed into resistance areas on the charts. The close was positive and short term trends are up in New York and in London. It looks like the buying was based on the charts as New York futures could not move to new lows and in fact have held at an important area on the charts. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. The mid crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 5.165 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2480 and 2520 July. Support is at 2280, 2250, and 2220 July, with resistance at 2310, 2335, and 2350 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1580 and 1600 July. Support is at 1505, 1490, and 1470 July, with resistance at 1535, 1550, and 1560 July.

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were higher on strong export sales. Trends are mixed. Ideas of good weather for US crops are still around. Traders are worried about Chinese demand, but there is talk that overall demand increased on the moves lower last week. US economic data has been improving, but mixed. The weather has improved in all areas with some precipitation in Texas areas and drier weather in the forecast for the next few days for the Delta and Southeast. Dry weather is forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and warm weather is expected in Texas this week. Ideas are that farmers can get a lot of planting done with dry and warm conditions. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions or afternoon showers through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather or a few showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.87 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.527 million bales, from 0.523 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.60, 82.90, and 81.70 July, with resistance of 85.70, 86.40, and 86.90 July.

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