Oil focuses on inventories as jobs report looms

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Oil prices are starting the day higher after a mostly bullish API oil inventory report released late yesterday afternoon. The main surprise was a 7.8 million barrels draw in crude oil stocks (see below for a more detailed discussion). The API data is setting the stage for the market to place even more importance on this morning’s EIA oil inventory data release. The EIA data is more widely followed and as such the market is impacted more directly from the EIA data. This morning the trading session will be driven by oil fundamentals, especially if the EIA data is in sync with the API data.

That said the macroeconomic data activity is starting to pick up as the ever important monthly jobs data cycle gets underway today. Jobs week kicks off this morning with the ADP private jobs survey. The market is looking for 160,000 new private sector jobs. Tomorrow the weekly initial jobless claims will be released followed by the main event on Friday… the U.S. nonfarm payroll data. The market is currently looking for nonfarm payroll data to show 165,000 new jobs were created in May with the headline unemployment rate holding steady at 7.5%. The jobs data has been elevated in importance as the one of the Fed’s economic measurement gauges of QE is tied to the unemployment rate.

Global equities have continued to depreciate in value over the last 24 hours. The EMI Global Equity Index is now lower by 0.62% for the week resulting in the year to date gain widening to 0.7%. Japan was the big loser overnight shedding another 3.8% and thus lowering its year to date to half of what it was just several weeks ago (currently at 25.2%). The U.S. and London are the other two bourses still showing double-digit gains for the year… all QE countries. Brazil and Hong Kong remain in the loss column for the year. Currently global equities are a negative price driver for the oil complex.

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