Coffee falls as roasters show little interest in buying

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher after holding chart support. Futures were not able to take out recent highs, but appear poised to test those levels. Trends are mixed, but some think a bull flag is forming and is almost completed. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support ítem and will be for several years. Irrigation is still in use in a few areas. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered afternoon showers through the week, with big rains possible over the next few days in center and western parts of the state. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near normal this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 160.00 and 177.00 July. Support is at 148.00, 145.00, and 144.00 July, with resistance at 156.00, 159.00, and 162.00 July.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed lower on speculative and mill selling tied to a weaker Brazil currency. The price action overall remains weak and implies that further losses are coming down the road due to coming Brazil supplies. Futures made new lows for the move and new contract lows in New York, but whites in London held better. There were some reports of shipments of White Sugar getting booked ahead of the Ramadan holiday to give some demand to the market. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East, but starting to fade now as needs are getting covered. Reuters ran a story last night about difficulties for Mexican producers to find bags for shipping Sugar and that shipments from there to Europe are getting delayed. The story says that this is causing extra strength in London futures as supplies from Mexico are getting scarce in Europe.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1620, 1610, and 1600 July. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 July, and resistance is at 1675, 1700, and 1720 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 474.00, 470.00, and 467.00 August, and resistance is at 481.00, 487.00, and 491.00 August.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher, and short term trends are up in New York, and starting to turn up for the short term in London. It looks like the buying was based on the charts as New York futures could not move to new lows and in fact have held at an important area on the charts. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. The mid-crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.969 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2480 and 2520 July. Support is at 2250, 2220, and 2185 July, with resistance at 2290, 2310, and 2335 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1580 and 1600 July. Support is at 1505, 1490, and 1470 July, with resistance at 1535, 1550, and 1560 July.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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