Orange juice balances greening disease with good weather

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher on speculative short covering tied to ides that the market might be forming a short term low. There is talk of increasing offers of Robusta from producers as they apparently did not sell when prices were much higher. However, the Arabica market does not show any real changes. Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and waiting for differentials or futures to get stronger, and mostly are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are waiting for prices to drop even more, but need coffee and will buy if the differentials offered are good. Brazil weather is forecast to show some showers for this week, but no cold weather. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.750 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 122.58 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions away from some showers in Eastern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The ICO said that world Coffee exports were 9.60 million bags in April and now total 65.98 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 119.00 July, and resistance is at 133.00, 135.00, and 138.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1870, 1855, and 1830 July, and resistance is at 1895, 1920, and 1930 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 153.00, 150.00, and 147.00 September, and resistance is at 161.50, 166.00, and 170.00 September.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed lower on speculative and mill selling. The price action overall remains weak and implies that further losses are coming down the road due to coming Brazil supplies. Futures made new lows for the move and new contract lows in New York, but whites in London held better. There were some reports of shipments of White Sugar getting booked ahead of the Ramadan holiday to give some demand to the market. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1620, 1610, and 1600 July. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 July, and resistance is at 1675, 1700, and 1720 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 474.00, 470.00, and 467.00 August, and resistance is at 481.00, 487.00, and 491.00 August.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher, and turned short term trends up in New York, but left trends sideways in London. It looks like the buying was based on the charts as New York futures could not move to new lows. Longer term trends remain down on good weather in Africa and weak demand ideas. Ideas are that processors are not active in the market right now and are hoping for lower prices before buying again. Some processors have large stocks to work down as well as many bought early due to the new marketing program in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. The mid-crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.989 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2480 and 2520 July. Support is at 2220, 2185, and 2170 July, with resistance at 2250, 2275, and 2290 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1490, 1470, and 1455 July, with resistance at 1515, 1520, and 1535 July.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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