Energies point to short-term bear trend

Energy complex daily targets

Here are today's levels:


Brent Crude Oil (July ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/22/13 @ 103.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/22/13 @ 102.60. Downside Targets = 99.40
    • July Brent Crude dropped to its lowest level of the week on Thursday following another injection into storage that brought levels to new record levels before finding support at $101 and rallying to close back above the daily mid-range.
    • Based on Thursday’s price action, expect for Brent to trade back through Thursday’s high and up near the $103 mark.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.06
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.36
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.59 

WTI Crude Oil (July ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/22/13 @ 95.46. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/22/13 @ 94.28. Downside Targets = 91.10 – 90.04.
    • July WTI Crude Oil made new 3 ½ week lows on Thursday in the overnight trading only to reverse course early in the pit session despite the large injection into domestic storage stockpiles.
    • Thursday’s strong rebound in prices should technically lead to a move back near $94.50 before it reaches any significant resistance.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.06
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.93 

Natural Gas (July ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/13 @ 4.117. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/30/13 @ 4.023. Downside Targets = 3.957 – 3.879.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 4.117. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 4.023.
    • July Natural Gas dropped considerably lower throughout Thursday’s trading session on the heels of another large injection into storage as mild temps continue to press the overall storage closer to the 5-year average.
    • Based on the recent price action, the volatility and ST rates of change are considerably oversold and the market should experience a short-covering rally into the weekend back near $4.10.
  • Projected Daily Range: .123
  • Projected Weekly Range: .205
  • Projected Monthly Range: .570

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

 

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