U.S. bonds keep sliding, euro to fall?

Home prices rose in the 12 months through March by the most in seven years. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 10.9% from March 2012. Also, a closely watched measure of consumer confidence rose to the highest level in five years, to a reading of 76.2

Equities: The JUN13 E-mini S&P 500 is up 14.5 points to 1665, on a higher than expected consumer confidence reading, a very positive read on the housing market, and also on talk of more easing/stimulus from Europe. Our key pivot level for this market is 1663. If the market can stay above this level, our next two key levels above are 1679 and then a potential new high of 1694. We still believe the market has very bullish undertones and fundamentals, and would not be surprised to see 1679 tested again soon.

Bonds: The U.S. bond market has really slid a lot this month, with the U.S. 30-year trading down almost 2 full points this morning, hitting a low of 141’09. Our first key target level of 141 has almost been hit. With the nonfarm payrolls report coming out very soon, the bonds could head even lower than they are today if the jobs # comes out very strong. It seems that the market has been pricing in not only a stronger economy, but more importantly the Fed starting to cut back bond purchases this year.

Currencies: The euro currency is down 50 ticks today on the potential for the ECB to further lower rates and provide more stimulus to the Euro region economy. The ECB meets next in nine days, and this announcement will be pivotal for the euro. The euro looks to us to be in a bearish technical environment, with a very key pivot level at 128.67, where the market is also trading today. If the market can stay below 128.67, we believe it is headed to 127.34. The Aussie dollar is also holding out near recent lows, trading up 1 tick to 96.28. Our key pivot level for this market is 96.15. If the market can stay above here, it could head to 96.60 and then 97.16. The target below the pivot is 95.46.

Commodities: The biggest mover on the commodities board is palladium, trading up 4.6% to $759.65. on growing South Africa labor concerns. Soybean meal and soybeans are the biggest upside movers in the grains market as heavy rainfall in parts of the Midwest kept farmers from planting crops on schedule. Gold is up $3 to $1,390. Crude oil is up $1 to $95.12, mainly on upbeat US data stoking the market pricing in a possibility for higher demand, and also this market is probably affected by the potential of more ECB stimulus, which would likely be bullish commodities.

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About the Author
Anthony Lazzara

Anthony Lazzara, CEO of Newport Beach, Calif., commodities investment firm Lido Isle Advisors, spent 10 years as a trader and floor broker at the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Anthony has significant experience in the energy, fixed income, and equity futures markets. After being a long-time independent futures trader, Anthony saw a tremendous opportunity to educate investors on how to invest in professional traders. Anthony is now focused on his duty as CEO of Lido Isle Advisors.

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