Cotton falls on weak Chinese economic data and low demand


General Comments:  Futures were lower again Friday in response to weak Chinese economic data and on demand concerns in general.  The export sales report last week was strong, but not strong enough to offset the bad news from overseas.  The weather has improved in all areas with some precipitation in Texas areas and drier weather in the forecast for the next few days for the Delta and Southeast.  Traders also were looking for new signs of demand, but are not finding much new.  Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks.  Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the US.  Dry weather is forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and warm weather is expected in Texas this week.  Ideas are that farmers can get a lot of planting done with dry and warm conditions.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions or afternoon showers, but better rains this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will get mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Saturday.  Temperatures will average mostly above normal.  The USDA spot price is now 77.03 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.509 million bales, from 0.511 million yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 80.90 July.  Support is at 80.10, 79.00, and 78.10 July, with resistance of 82.20, 82.90, and 83.60 July.


General Comments:  Futures closed slightly lower in consolidation trading after the rally Thursday in response to forecasts from NOAA for an active to very active hurricane season this year.  It was a positive close and a positive week, and more rallies are now possible.  Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support ítem and will be for several years.  Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains.  Temperatures are warm in the state.  The Valencia harvest is continuing.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered afternoon showers through the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near normal this weekend.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 160.00 and 177.00 July.  Support is at 145.00, 144.00, and 139.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 156.00 July.

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