COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower on good weather in Africa and weak demand ideas. Ideas are that processors are not active in the market right now and are hoping for lower prices before buying again. Some processors have large stocks to work down as well as many bought early due to the new marketing program in Ivory Coast. The weather now is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.958 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2260, 2235, and 2220 July, with resistance at 2310, 2350, and 2360 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1470 July, with resistance at 1560, 1580, and 1590 July.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower in response to weak Chinese economic data. The export sales report was strong, but not strong enough to offset the bad news from overseas. The weather has improved in all areas with some precipitation in Texas areas and drier weather in the forecast for the next few days for the Delta and Southeast. Traders also were looking for new signs of demand, but were not finding much. Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks. Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the US. Dry weather is forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and warm weather is expected in Texas this week. Ideas are that farmers can get a lot of planting done with dry and warm conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions or afternoon showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA spot price is now 77.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.511 million bales, from 0.509 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 81.30 and 80.90 July. Support is at 80.10, 79.00, and 78.10 July, with resistance of 82.20, 82.90, and 83.60 July.
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Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.About the Author
