COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower on good weather in Africa and weak demand ideas. Ideas are that processors are not active in the market right now and are hoping for lower prices before buying again. Some processors have large stocks to work down as well as many bought early due to the new marketing program in Ivory Coast. The weather now is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.958 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2260, 2235, and 2220 July, with resistance at 2310, 2350, and 2360 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1470 July, with resistance at 1560, 1580, and 1590 July.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower in response to weak Chinese economic data. The export sales report was strong, but not strong enough to offset the bad news from overseas. The weather has improved in all areas with some precipitation in Texas areas and drier weather in the forecast for the next few days for the Delta and Southeast. Traders also were looking for new signs of demand, but were not finding much. Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks. Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the US. Dry weather is forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and warm weather is expected in Texas this week. Ideas are that farmers can get a lot of planting done with dry and warm conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions or afternoon showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA spot price is now 77.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.511 million bales, from 0.509 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 81.30 and 80.90 July. Support is at 80.10, 79.00, and 78.10 July, with resistance of 82.20, 82.90, and 83.60 July.
Next page: Orange Juice, Coffee and Sugar
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed higher in response to forecasts from NOAA for an active to very active hurricane season this year. It was a positive close, and more rallies are now possible. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered afternoon showers through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near normal this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 160.00 and 177.00 July. Support is at 145.00, 144.00, and 139.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 156.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher on speculative buying tied to ideas of a slower harvest pace in Brazil and a weaker US Dollar. Most sellers, including Brazil, withdrew offers after futures broke down on Wednesday. Brazil weather is forecast to show some big rains that could hurt the harvest pace but help trees getting ready to flower. Trends have turned down due to the expected large production in Brazil. Buyers are not interested, but offers in the physical market are not big. It is speculators who keep pushing the futures lower. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.753 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 123.42 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions away from some showers in Eastern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 and 116.00 July. Support is at 128.00, 125.00, and 122.00 July, and resistance is at 133.00, 135.00, and 138.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1940 and 1930 July. Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1920 July, and resistance is at 2000, 2020, and 2030 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 156.00, 153.00, and 150.00 September, and resistance is at 161.50, 166.00, and 170.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. The close was weak and implies that further losses are coming. There were some reports of shipments getting booked ahead of the Ramadan holiday to give some demand to the market. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. However, Datagro in Brazil noted that planting is 21% behind the normal pace due to recent rains. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil, but some showers are expected on Friday. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July. Support is at 1650, 1620, and 1600 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1740 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 470.00, 467.00, and 464.00 August, and resistance is at 480.00, 487.00, and 491.00 August.
