Sugar falls as big production estimates project further losses

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed higher.  It was a positive close, and more rallies are now possible.  Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years.  Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains.  Temperatures are warm in the state.  The Valencia harvest is continuing.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered afternoon showers through the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near normal this weekend.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 144.00, 139.00, and 137.50 July, with resistance at 147.00, 150.00, and 153.00 July.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower again on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to big production ideas from Brazil as the harvest has started and on chart patterns.  Futures made new lows for the move and new contract lows.  Brazil weather remains mostly dry, but some areas could see showers later this week, which would be beneficial to trees.  Dry weather helps harvest progress.  Trends have turned down due to the conditions and expected large production in Brazil.  Buyers are not interested, but offers in the physical market are not big.  It is speculators who keep pushing the futures lower.  Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry.  Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering.  Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.755 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 123.33 ct/lb.  Brazil should get mostly dry conditions or light showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions away from some showers in Eastern Mexico and northern Central America.  Temperatures should average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 and 116.00 July.  Support is at 128.00, 125.00, and 122.00 July, and resistance is at 133.00, 135.00, and 138.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1990, 1940, and 1930 July.  Support is at 1990, 1980, and 1970 July, and resistance is at 2030, 2040, and 2060 July.  Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives.  Support is at 156.00, 153.00, and 150.00 September, and resistance is at 161.50, 166.00, and 170.00 September.

COCOA        

General Comments:  Futures closed lower due to US Dollar strength.  Ideas are that processors are not active in the market right now and are hoping for lower prices before buying again.  Some processors have large stocks to work down as well as many bought early due to the new marketing program in Ivory Coast.  The weather now is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains.  Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices.  The mid-crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported.  Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 4.984 million bags. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2285, 2275, and 2260 July, with resistance at 2350, 2365, and 2370 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1555, 1530, and 1515 July, with resistance at 1580, 1590, and 1605 July.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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