Strong natural gas close shows strength before storage numbers

Daily Market Analysis for Wednesday, 05/22/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (July ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/13 @ 100.34. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/20/13 @ 100.39. Upside Targets = 106.40 – 108.61.
  • Possible Short-Term TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 103.50 or lower.
    • July Brent Crude dropped to close below $104 on Tuesday for the first time in 3 trading sessions as the market was unable to build upon Monday’s strong price action after hitting 80% of the ST upside objective.
    • While Brent may move initially lower on Wednesday, only a close below Tuesday’s low will signal an end to the recent ST rally.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.55
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.85
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.59

WTI Crude Oil (July ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/03/13 @ 94.26. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 05/01/13 @ 94.26. Upside Targets = 97.92.
  • Inside compression day generated on Tuesday. Possible Short-Term TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 95.46 or lower.
    • July WTI Crude Oil sank lower on Tuesday in a narrow trading session after failing to make new highs for the month by just 3 ticks this week as ST stochastics are reaching peaking levels.
    • Like Brent, expect for WTI to face some early resistance before the EIA storage report comes out as well as Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.69
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.68
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.93

Natural Gas (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/14/13 @ 4.021. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 05/14/13 @ 4.024. Upside Targets = 4.195 – 4.243
  • New highs made on the current move Tuesday @ 4.210.
    • June Natural Gas was unable to follow through on Monday evening’s bearish price action to fill the weekly close gap still left in the market from last week as it moved to its highest levels since the bearish ERVB down day on 05/02.
    • Tuesday’s strong close and confirmed bullish price action could lead to more gains on Wednesday before this week’s storage number, however, it is currently between the mid-point of the ERVB down day and the 61.8% Fib retracement values from the contract and annual highs, which may entice new short sellers.
  • Projected Daily Range: .136
  • Projected Weekly Range: .283
  • Projected Monthly Range: .570
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome