The following table compares my projections for this week's report (for the categories I am making projections with the change in inventories for the same period last year. As you can see from the table last year's inventories are not in directional sync with some large differences compared to last year’s changes. As such if the actual data is in line with the projections there will be modest changes in the year over year inventory comparisons for most everything in the complex.
I am maintaining my view of the entire complex at neutral but moving my bias back to cautiously bullish as prices have breached the next resistance level or are very close to it. Global demand growth is still looking like it is turning to the downside. On the other hand the externals have been pushing oil and other commodity values higher as more liquidity from advanced country central banks continues.
I am maintaining my view and bias at cautiously bullish after this week’s price reversal and breaching of the range resistance level driven by what may be the start of the summer cooling season and thus suggesting higher prices may now be in the cards.
Markets are mostly lower as shown in the following table.
Dominick A. Chirichella