Coffee falls as large Brazil harvest begins

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower again on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to big production ideas from Brazil as the harvest has started.  Brazil weather remains mostly dry, but some areas could see showers later this week, which would be beneficial to trees.  Dry weather helps harvest progress.  Trends have turned down after the recent run to higher values due to the conditions and expected large production in Brazil.  Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry.  Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering.  Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are slightly lower today and are about 2.751 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 125.52 ct/lb.  Brazil should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are liukely about Friday.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions away from some showers in Eastern Mexico and northern Central America.  Temperatures should average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 and 116.00 July.  Support is at 132.00, 128.00, and 125.00 July, and resistance is at 138.00, 141.00, and 143.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1990, 1940, and 1930 July.  Support is at 1990, 1980, and 1970 July, and resistance is at 2030, 2040, and 2060 July.  Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 161.00 September.  Support is at 159.00, 156.00, and 153.00 September, and resistance is at 166.00, 170.00, and 171.00 September.

COTTON

General Comments:  Futures were lower on speculative selling tied to weak chart patterns and also on good planting conditions here in the US.  The weather has improved in all areas with some precipitation in Texas areas and drier weather in the forecast for the Delta and Southeast.  Traders also were looking for new signs of demand, but were not finding much.  Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks and as private buyers there reject offers from the government due to quality and price.  Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the U.S.  Dry weather is forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and much warmer weather is expected in Texas this week.  Ideas are that farmers can get a lot of planting done with dry and warm conditions.  Short term trends are mixed.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions or afternoon showers.  Showers and storms could last through tomorrow.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will get mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Friday.  Temperatures will average mostly above normal.  The USDA spot price is now 79.01 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.509 million bales, from 0.506 million yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 83,209, 82.80, and 81.30 July.  Support is at 83.60, 82.90, and 82.20 July, with resistance of 85.00, 85.40, and 87.10 July.

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