Coffee falls as large Brazil harvest begins

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in quiet trading.  Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state.  The rains over the weekend and in forecasts for this week appear to be less than expected late last week.  Many areas of Florida remain too dry.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years.  Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains.  Temperatures are warm in the state.  The Valencia harvest is continuing.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered afternoon showers much of the week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near normal this weekend.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 19.00, 137.50, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 145.00, 147.00, and 150.00 July.

SUGAR         

General Comments:  Futures closed slightly higher in consolidation trading.  There were some reports of shipments getting booked ahead of the Ramadan holiday to give some demand to the market.  Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices in recent sessions.  Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the weather is good.  Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July.  Chart patterns are weak.  The northeast part of Brazil has been hurt by drought and Sugar production has been affected.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil, but some showers are expected on Friday.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July.  Support is at 1670, 1620, and 1600 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1740 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 470.00, 467.00, and 464.00 August, and resistance is at 480.00, 487.00, and 491.00 August.

COCOA        

General Comments:  Futures closed higher.  It was another quiet news day.  The weather now is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains.  Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices.  The mid-crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported.  Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.  Demand remains an issue.  Some processors in Europe have cut back on operations.  It is a sign of weaker consumer demand there.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 4.985 million bags. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2315, 2285, and 2275 July, with resistance at 2365, 2370, and 2390 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1480 July, with resistance at 1560, 1580, and 1590 July.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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