Orange juice moves higher as greening disease losses advance

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower again on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to big production ideas from Brazil as the harvest there gets underway. Brazil weather remains mostly dry, but some areas could see showers later this week, which would be beneficial. Weather in other areas like Central America, where it has been dry, provided some support. Trends have turned down after the recent run to higher values. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.752 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 126.75 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are likely about Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions away from some showers in Eastern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Safras e Mercado said Friday that Brazil producers have sold 83% of the 2012-13 crop. Vendieron 92% de la production e esa fecha de 2012.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 and 116.00 July. Support is at 132.00, 128.00, and 125.00 July, and resistance is at 138.00, 141.00, and 143.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1990, 1940, and 1930 July. Support is at 1990, 1980, and 1970 July, and resistance is at 2030, 2040, and 2060 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 161.00 September. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 162.00 September, and resistance is at 170.00, 171.00, and 184.00 September.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed lower on ideas of big production in Brazil. There were some reports of shipments getting booked ahead of the Ramadan holiday to give some demand to the market. Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices in recent sessions. They got some big production and processing estimates for April last week from UNICA. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are weak. The northeast part of Brazil has been hurt by drought and Sugar production has been affected.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil, but some showers are expected on Friday. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 July, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1755 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 473.00, 470.00, and 467.00 August, and resistance is at 480.00, 487.00, and 491.00 August.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed near unchanged in consolidation trading. It was another quiet news day. There is less on offer from West Africa, and reports indicate that bean sizes are small due to the heat and dry weather seen earlier in the year. The weather now is good, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid-crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Demand remains an issue. Some processors in Europe have cut back on operations. It is a sign of weaker consumer demand there.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 4.986 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2285, 2275, and 2255 July, with resistance at 2335, 2365, and 2370 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1480 July, with resistance at 1560, 1580, and 1590 July.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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