Cocoa falls as concern grows over bean size and quality

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed lower on no news nod speculative selling. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state. The growing conditions in Florida are improved with the recent rains, but drier weather is back. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week and near normal this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 141.00, 140.00, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 147.00, 150.00, and 153.00 July.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower again, with little in the way of news to affect prices much one way or another. Brazil weather remains mostly dry, but some areas of Sao Paulo could see a shower by the end of the weekend, which would be beneficial. Weather in other areas like Central America, where it has been dry, also provided some support. Trends have turned sideways to down after the recent run to higher values. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer, and CONAB showed a big production potential in its latest production report released this week. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry. Dry conditions are forecast to continue in most areas, but some parts of Sao Paulo, mostly southern areas, could get showers. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.744 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 128.95 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE stocks are now 12,727 lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 138.00, 126.00, and 116.00 July. Support is at 136.00, 132.00, and 131.00 July, and resistance is at 143.00, 146.00, and 149.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2020, and 2000 July, and resistance is at 2060, 2075, and 2100 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 170.00, 167.50, and 165.00 September, and resistance is at 176.00, 180.00, and 181.50 September.

SUGAR  

General Comments: Futures closed lower and made new lows for the move on reports of big production in Brazil. Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices. They got some big production and processing estimates for April this week. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are weak. Brazil has offered subsidies to Sugar producers located in the northeast part of the country. About 17,000 producers would be eligible to get assistance. That part of Brazil has been hurt by drought and Sugar production has been affected.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 July, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1755 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 476.00, 473.00, and 470.00 August, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 496.00 August.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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