Sugar falls after Brazil triples sugar production

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed mixed on reduced production estimates from Brazil and ideas that more production cuts are coming in the US due to the greening disease. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state. The growing conditions in Florida are improved with the recent rains, but drier weather is back. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week and near normal this weekend. CitrusBR estimated Orange production in Brazil at 268.4 million boxes, down 30.4% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 161.00 and 178.00 July. Support is at 145.00, 142.00, and 140.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 160.00 July.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were slightly lower in low volume trading. Brazil weather has improved, and some areas of Sao Paulo could see a shower by the end of the week, which would be beneficial. Weather in other areas like Central America, where it has been dry, also provided some support. Trends have turned sideways after the recent run to higher values. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the Summer, and CONAB showed a big production potential in its latest production report released yesterday. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry for the past week. Dry conditions are forecast to continue in most areas, but some parts of Sao Paulo could get showers. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering, although rains are in the forecast for this week. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.741 million bags. In Brazil, CONAB estimated 2013-14 Coffee production at 48.6 million bags. The country is expected to produce 36.4 million bags of Arabica and 12,2 million bags of Robusta. The ICO composite price is now 131.98 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 143.00, 140.00, and 136.00 July, and resistance is at 149.00, 150.00, and 152.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2090, 2150, and 2215 July. Support is at 2020, 1980, and 1970 July, and resistance is at 2075, 2100, and 2140 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 171.50, 170.00, and 167.50 September, and resistance is at 180.00, 182.00, and 183.00 September.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading after the big down moves last week. It was another quiet news day, although there were wire reports of some wáter damage problems for some certified stocks for LIFFE in Antwerp. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is down for seasonal considerations, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid-crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. Reports indicate that bean sizes are small due to the heat and dry weather seen earlier in the year. The weather now is good, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid-crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.920 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2285 July, with resistance at 2370, 2390, and 2400 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 and 1465 July. Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1480 July, with resistance at 1565, 1580, and 1590 July.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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