Russia spurns rate-cut calls as inflation tops economic woes

Russia left its main interest rates unchanged for an eighth month, brushing off government calls for lower borrowing costs and repeating an incremental cut to seldom used rates after inflation accelerated last month.

Bank Rossii kept the refinancing rate at 8.25%, half a point above the record low, the Moscow-based regulator said in a statement on its website today. The move was forecast by 18 of 24 economists in a Bloomberg survey, with six predicting a quarter-point cut. The main lending and deposit rates were also kept unchanged.

Outgoing Bank Rossii Chairman Sergey Ignatiev has limited room for policy easing with inflation more than a percentage point above target, putting him at odds with an international push for monetary stimulus this month. As officials from Australia to Israel lower borrowing costs to recharge growth, his successor, President Vladimir Putin’s economic aide Elvira Nabiullina, is helping prepare a plan to revive an economy that’s expanding at the weakest pace since a 2009 contraction.

“The central bank is remaining very cautious,” Maxim Oreshkin, chief economist for Russia at VTB Capital in Moscow, said by phone. “Inflation clearly remains the central bank’s top priority.”

The ruble paired losses against the dollar following the announcement and was 0.5% weaker at 31.521 as of 5:20 p.m. in Moscow. The 50-stock Micex Index added to losses and was 1.3% lower at 1,287.28, heading for the lowest close since May 2.

Tight Policy

Some government members, including Economy Minister Andrei Belousov, have criticized Russia’s restrictive monetary policy, arguing that the economy may slide into a recession later this year without stimulus. Putin called the regulator’s stance “largely justified” last month in a televised show where he took questions from the public, saying the central bank needed to rein in inflation.

Gross domestic product grew 2.1% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since a 2009 contraction. The Economy Ministry last month lowered its forecast for gross domestic product to expand this year by 2.4%, down from a projected 3.7% increase in an outlook published in September.

Policy makers held their main lending rates, the overnight and one-week auction-based repurchase rates, at 5.50%, while the overnight deposit rate was kept at 4.50%. Costs on some longer-term loans, including those backed by gold and non-marketable assets, were reduced by a quarter-point for a second month.

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