Orange juice moves higher as USDA maintains estimates

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed higher in reaction to unchanged production estimates from USDA and ideas that more production cuts are coming due to the greening disease.  Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state.  The growing conditions in Florida are improved with the recent rains, but drier weather is back.  Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years.  Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains.  Temperatures are warm in the state.  The Valencia harvest is continuing.  Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 161.00 and 178.00 July.  Support is at 145.00, 142.00, and 140.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 160.00 July.

COTTON

General Comments:  Futures were lower as traders concentrated once again on world supply and demand estimates that showed ample supplies instead of the projected tight US market conditions.  The US estimates should help support higher prices in the long run.  The market was also weak on forecasts for warm and dry weather in many US production areas that will promote active planting by farmers this week.  Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks and as private buyers there reject offers from the government due to quality and price.  Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the US.  Dry weather is forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and much warmer weather is expected in Texas this week.  So far, planting of all crops is slow, but ideas are that farmers can get a lot of planting done with dry and warm conditions.  Short term trends are mixed.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will get mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will average mostly above normal.  The USDA spot price is now 81.03 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.504 million bales, from 0.499 million yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8280 and 8090 July.  Support is at 85.40, 85.00, and 83.00 July, with resistance of 86.60, 87.60, and 88.50 July.

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