Cotton falls as demand estimates show ample supplies

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were lower as traders concentrated on world supply and demand estimates that showed ample supplies instead of the projected tight U.S. market conditions. The U.S. estimates should help support higher prices in the long run. Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks and as private buyers there reject offers from the government due to quality and price. Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the U.S. Rains will move through the Delta and Southeast through the weekend to keep progress slow. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. So far, planting of all crops is slow, and Cotton progress could slow down again with showers in the forecast for the Delta and Southeast this weekend. Short term trends are mixed.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA spot price is now 81.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.499 million bales, from 0.497 million yesterday. ICE said that delivery notices were 0 contracts today and now total 612 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.25, 85.40, and 85.00 July, with resistance of 88.50, 90.00, and 91.15 July.

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher in reaction to unchanged production estimates from USDA. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state. The growing conditions in Florida are improved with the recent rains, but drier weather is back. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 104 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 142.00, 140.00, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 147.00, 150.00, and 153.00 July.

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