Stock market highs create more optimism, but for how long?

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

There were more new highs made last week and more prognostications for even higher prices surfaced. Such is always the case with new highs. Investors who are long and making money feel good. Those who are not long because they didn’t get in on the party are asking themselves, “Is it too late to get in?” That’s a lot like asking if it’s too late to get on board a train that left over four years ago.

Unfortunately, one of the biggest drawbacks to “playing” the stock market is that many investors prefer a similarly thinking crowd for comfort when they invest. While there are times the group can be right about the market, usually in the middle stages of a rally, it is into long-term tops that group-think fails. Most believe the trend is not ending and look for reasons to stay long even though prices may be pulling back from points that will ultimately prove to be long-term highs and not new buying opportunities.

As we suggested earlier in our commentary, we thought this bull market would be over by now. But since we do not rely on subjective presumptions to build our market strategies, even our own, whether the market ends here or moves higher is really of little consequence. What we do know is that the Major Cycle advance will end and that we will adjust objectively when that happens.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

3-28-13

12

7

3-28-13

8869

12160

3-29-13

Holiday

 

3-29-13

Holiday

 

4-1-13

4

14

4-1-13

15333

6586

4-2-13

12

5

4-2-13

15333

31968

4-3-13

3

17

4-3-13

9175

17447

4-4-13

16

4

4-4-13

14845

10894

4-5-13

9

10

4-5-13

13275

17987

4-8-13

17

3

4-8-13

10832

8968

4-9-13

13

6

4-9-13

11360

10496

4-10-13

17

3

4-10-13

39638

11701

4-11-13

12

8

4-11-13

40385

9040

4-12-13

4

16

4-12-13

15464

12492

4-15-13

3

17

4-15-13

13520

56778

4-16-13

17

3

4-16-13

11823

10672

4-17-13

2

18

4-17-13

27607

26623

4-18-13

5

15

4-18-13

26564

39801

4-19-13

13

7

4-19-13

40971

17022

4-22-13

14

5

4-22-13

17437

26235

4-23-13

16

4

4-23-13

32133

20086

4-24-13

13

7

4-24-13

5610

8239

4-25-13

14

6

4-25-13

40919

13473

4-26-13

10

10

4-26-13

11615

12478

4-29-13

16

3

4-29-13

14283

12393

4-30-13

13

7

4-30-13

8949

13960

5-1-13

6

14

5-1-13

13379

9682

5-2-13

17

3

5-2-13

19466

13886

5-3-13

17

3

5-3-13

41532

21636

5-6-13

13

6

5-6-13

NA

NA

5-7-13

13

6

5-7-13

21572

8712

5-8-13

17

3

5-8-13

36948

11426

5-9-13

9

11

5-9-13

20593

18234

5-10-13

16

3

5-10-13

21866

10346

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

1-4-13

19

1

1-4-13

142605

25100

1-11-13

13

5

1-11-13

90566

22250

1-18-13

11

8

1-18-13

75858

37446

1-25-13

12

7

1-25-13

67580

24811

2-1-13

14

6

2-1-13

47418

27737

2-8-13

10

9

2-8-13

79635

31633

2-15-13

11

9

2-15-13

81129

33755

2-22-13

4

16

2-22-13

92498

42338

3-1-13

7

12

3-1-13

84043

45510

3-8-13

19

1

3-8-13

99617

35462

3-15-13

13

7

3-15-13

146291

30502

3-22-13

6

14

3-22-13

60614

38326

3-29-13

13

7

3-29-13

46289

19185

4-5-13

7

13

4-5-13

36138

75905

4-12-13

17

3

4-12-13

102421

24788

4-19-13

5

15

4-19-13

77064

98927

4-26-13

16

4

4-26-13

69002

47733

5-3-13

18

2

5-3-13

106307

39059

5-10-13

16

4

5-10-13

101919

27785

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

 


<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

Comments
comments powered by Disqus