The following table compares my projections for this week's report (for the categories I am making projections with the change in inventories for the same period last year. As you can see from the table last year's inventories are not in directional sync with some large differences compared to last year’s changes. As such if the actual data is in line with the projections there will be modest changes in the year over year inventory comparisons for most everything in the complex.
I am maintaining my view of the entire complex at neutral. Global demand growth is still looking like it is turning to the downside. On the other hand the market has been pushing oil and other commodity values higher as more liquidity from advanced country central banks continues.
I am maintaining my view at neutral for Nat Gas and keeping my bias at cautiously bearish as today’s price reversal and breaching of the lower range support level suggests lower prices may still be in the cards. The fundamentals are less supportive after last week’s inventory snapshot.
Markets are mostly lower ahead of the US trading session as shown in the following table.
Dominick A. Chirichella