Natural gas looks for buyers to target $4.13

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday, 05/07/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/13 @ 100.34. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/20/13 @ 100.39. Upside Targets = 106.40 – 108.61.
  • New highs made on the current move Monday @ 105.54.
    • June Brent Crude was able to build on last week’s late push higher as it closed at its highest level in almost a month on steady buying throughout much of the session following an early morning setback.
    • Brent is within just less than $0.50 of impacting the 50-day moving average and also nearing the upper limits of the daily Bollinger Bands, so traders who are remaining long this market may look to tighten up positions with trailing stops to avoid a ST setback before another move higher pushes the market to $110.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.21
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.72
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.59

WTI Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/03/13 @ 94.26. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 05/01/13 @ 94.26. Upside Targets = 97.92.
  • New highs made on the current move Monday @ 97.17.
    • June WTI Crude Oil came close to impacting the daily resistance Bollinger Band on Monday as it was again able to log a gain for the day, but gave back some ground in the spread to Brent as well as closing just above the daily mid-range.
    • WTI’s “no-man’s land” close on Monday lends itself to the possibility of ambiguous trading direction on Tuesday but given the strength the market has shown recently, current trends point to an early rally back above $96.50 before meeting some intraday resistance and a possible setback lower.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.42
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.83
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.93

Natural Gas (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/24/13 @ 4.201 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/24/13 @ 4.200. Downside Targets = 3.988 – 3.875.
  • New lows made on the current move Monday @ 3.971.
    • June Natural Gas generated new four-week lows on Monday as it fulfilled the weekly bearish price action by trading through last week’s low and then rallied into the settlement after finding solid support below the 50-day moving average and daily SBB.
    • Expect for the market to continue to rally back through Friday’s highs on Tuesday on a short-covering rally and to as high as $4.13 before it meets significant resistance intra-week and fresh sellers return to the market.
  • Projected Daily Range: .104
  • Projected Weekly Range: .373
  • Projected Monthly Range: .570
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome