General Comments: Futures closed lower in response to news of big production potential in Brazil and disappointing economic data from China. Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices. The ISO is still calling for a production surplus of up to 8.5 million tons this year. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward. Brazil mills could concentrate on Ethanol production first and Sugar production second, and that could create some short term shortages for the market. Sugar producers in Russia said that the planting pace has turned slow there as producers wrestle with high costs of production against falling domestic and world prices. Chart patterns are mixed for the short term.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1725, 1710, and 1680 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1835 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 497.00, 496.00, and 491.00 August, and resistance is at 510.00, 513.00, and 516.00 August.
General Comments: Futures were lower in response to disappointing economic data released here and in China. Demand for clothes could be cut due to less than expected data, and this hurt cotton futures. Rains are moving through the Delta and Southeast through this weekend to slow planting progress, and Texas is turning cold again. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. So far, planting of all crops is slow. Short term trends are trying to turn down.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see rains through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal today, then near to below normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but a few showers are expected today. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA spot price is now 78.91 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.517 million bales, from 0.516 million yesterday. ICE said that delivery notices were 19 contracts today and now total 545 contracts for the month. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 314,400 bales this year and 87,500 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 9,600 bales this year and 100 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.85, 82.20, and 81.70 July, with resistance of 84.90, 85.20, and 86.30 July.
Next page: Orange juice, Coffee and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed lower on follow through selling. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state and are expected to hit the state later this week on the other hand. The growing conditions in Florida are expected to improve with the rains. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. ICE said that 100 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 100 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 130.00 and 117.00 July. Support is at 136.00, 135.00, and 132.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 143.00, and 146.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were mixed to slightly lower in very quiet trading. Much of the Coffee world had the day off for May Day and the lack of participation was reflected in the price action. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer, and bears note that recently improved rains should help increase Vietnamese production potential this year. Ideas are that supplies available to the market are good. Rains continue in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved in the last week. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry for the past week and dry conditions are forecast to continue. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.734 million bags. ICE delivery notices are 21 contracts today and now total 158 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 126.43 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 126.00 and 116.00 July. Support is at 133.00, 131.00, and 128.00 July, and resistance is at 138.00, 140.00, and 142.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 July. Support is at 1970, 1955, and 1925 July, and resistance is at 2025, 2035, and 2050 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 161 September. Support is at 163.00, 162.00, and 161.00 September, and resistance is at 166.00, 167.50, and 170.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed higher. Chart patterns suggest further rallies could be coming down the road and demand has been better than trade expectations. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is down for seasonal considerations, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid-crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid-crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable, although some say that too much rain is hurting the harvest in Indonesia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.679 million bags. ICE said 15 delivery notices were posted against May contracts today and that total deliveries are now 743 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2530 July. Support is at 2370, 2320, and 2295 July, with resistance at 2435, 2460, and 2490 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1545, 1515, and 1490 July, with resistance at 1570, 1590, and 1610 July.