Natural gas stuck as bears, bulls fight for control

Daily Market Analysis for Wednesday, 05/01/2013


OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar


Brent Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/22/13 @ 100.34. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/22/13 @ 100.39. Upside Targets = 102.57 – 103.74.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday after making new highs on the current move @ 104.00.
    • June Brent Crude was unable to find the necessary buyers on Tuesday to help it press onward toward $105 and dropped lower throughout the end of trading as expected.
    • As mentioned in both last night’s and my weekend report, this market technically should head back lower throughout the remainder of the week to trade below $100 and eventually retest the current contract lows before going after my Q2 objective of $93.06.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.71
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.28

WTI Crude Oil (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/22/13 @ 89.07. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/22/13 @ 89.19. Upside Target = 90.33 – 93.32.
  • Inside compression day generated on Tuesday.
    • June WTI Crude Oil dropped lower on Tuesday as expectations for another supply injection pushed the market lower after failing to break through the $95 mark.
    • Should the fundamental data align with the current technical indicators suggesting that WTI may face a correction lower, look for sub-$90 prices in short order as the market tests the consolidation zone around $88.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.85
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.37
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.11

Natural Gas (June ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/24/13 @ 4.201 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/24/13 @ 4.200. Downside Targets = 3.988 – 3.875.
    • June Natural Gas rotated back and forth around a tight trading range on Tuesday as the bulls were unable to push the market through $4.40 but the bears were unable to put enough pressure on the market to trigger a collapse below $4.30, although the price did settle in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range.
    • Tuesday’s price action sets the stage for another battle above $4.35 and if new highs for the week are not made, look for this market to drop lower into Thursday’s storage number and challenge the weekly lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: .134
  • Projected Weekly Range: .304
  • Projected Monthly Range: .580
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at or visit his website at

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